I heard yet another one of those poorly researched, thrown together news pieces on the radio today. You know what I am talking about--they grab a headline or a stat and then they declare print is dead. Only today it was not print, it was printed books. The day of the e-reader is here. Long live e-readers! Yeah, right.
The headline and stat they pulled out for this one is Amazon's recent statement that Amazon is selling more e-books than hardcovers. Well, first of all, that is the "whisper down the lane" version of what Amazon said. The actual statement was, "Over the past three months, for every 100
hardcover books Amazon.com has sold, it has sold 143 Kindle books. Over
the past month, for every 100 hardcover books Amazon.com has sold, it
has sold 180 Kindle books..."Second, Amazon did not disclose how it came up with this number. How many of the Kindle titles were "sold" with the newly discounted Kindles? How many hardcovers did Amazon actually sell during these time periods? We are in the slowest months of the year for book sales, especially hardcover books, and that is in a good economy. To me, the Amazon statement says nothing useful except to tell me Amazon is feeling the iPad pain, if you know what I mean.
In the latest issue of the Seybold Report, which we distributed just an hour ago, we have an article that intellgently discussed the topic of iPad versus Kindle in a way publishers will understand. The bottom line is that by this time next year, Apple will probably have sold more than 20 million iPads while Amazon's sales of the Kindle may be only one fourth or one fifth that number. In my opinion, to get to unit levels of more than the current estimate of 3 million, Amazon will soon have to start giving the Kindle away. The big crunch for Amazon is going to be when Apple stops trying to sort out the iPhone 4 problems and starts ramping up iPad production--or announces the iPad 2. Then, Amazon is going to have to pay people to look at the Kindle. That is the story the news radio folks should have broadcast today.